Sunday, November 2, 2014

NC's In-Person Early Voting Comes to An End

We have the final totals for the vast majority of early votes coming in for North Carolina's general election; a small number of mail-in ballots will continue to trickle in, but the numbers point to a substantial turnout by North Carolina voters through the early voting period.

Of all ballots requested:


Overall, using both the mail-in requests (including those ballots that have been requested and those returned and accepted so far) and the in-person early voting method, North Carolina has the potential of seeing 1,192,190 votes cast before Tuesday's election.

Of all ballots accepted as votes:

Out of this 1.19 million votes cast, 1,155,131 ballots (both by mail-in and in-person) have been accepted as votes for Tuesday's election counting, with the following breakdowns by the different methods of balloting:


Among these accepted mail-in and in-person ballots:

  • registered Democrats are 47.6 percent
  • registered Republicans are 31.9 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated voters are 20.3 percent
  • Women are 54.2 percent
  • White voters are 71.6 percent
  • Black voters are 25.0 percent

Of all accepted ballots that were cast in-person:


Out of the accepted ballots that were cast in-person by North Carolinians, 1,097,560 have been recorded for votes on Tuesday.  This represents 121 percent of the 2010 numbers on the last day of early in-person voting in 2010.  The cumulative totals for these accepted in-person early votes are:



  • registered Democratic voters cast 48.5 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 532,026 ballots, representing 125 percent of the final day Democratic totals in 2010
  • registered Republican voters cast 31.1 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 341,523 ballots, representing 105 percent of the final day Republican totals in 2010
  • registered Unaffiliated & Libertarian voters cast 20.4 percent of the in-person accepted ballots, for a total of 224,011 ballots, representing 145 percent of the final day unaffiliated/Libertarian totals in 2010.
  • Female voters ended up casting 54.1 percent of the in-person accepted ballots
  • White voters are 70.8 percent of the total in-person accepted ballots
  • Black voters are 25.8 percent of the total in-person accepted ballots
Saturday's daily total of 103,128 for accepted in-person ballots was:




  • registered Democrats: 48.5 percent
  • registered Republicans: 30.4 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated/Libertarians: 21 percent
  • Women: 53.5 percent
  • White voters: 65.4 percent
  • Black voters: 29.9 percent
The trend line in comparing the daily cumulative totals of in-person accepted ballots against the numbers in 2010, as measured by the days out from the election, show the sizable performance of registered Democrats and registered Unaffiliated voters over their numbers from four years ago:


Finally, the voters who have participated in this year's in-person early voting and comparing their voting behavior in 2010's mid-term election shows a significant number of registered Unaffiliated and Democratic voters showing up who didn't cast ballots four years ago:


Additional Analysis (as of 2 PM):

In looking at the voters who were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in the mid-term four years ago, but did show up to cast an early ballot this year, we see some interesting numbers that could give us a clue on the ground game and interest level among the different groups of voters.

Among these 75,616 voters who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered to vote in 2010 but didn't vote in 2010:

  • 40,986 are registered Democrats, representing 54 percent of these voters
  • 17,892 are registered Republicans, representing 24 percent of these voters
  • 16,597 are registered Unaffiliated voters, representing 22 percent of these voters
Among each party registration in terms of race:


Among registered Democrats who cast 2014 in-person early ballots and were registered in 2010 but didn't vote in that year's mid-term election, 54 percent are black voters, with 42 percent white.  Among registered unaffiliated voters, 77 percent are white, while 14 percent are black voters.

Additional Analysis (as of 5 PM):

Among the 2014 NC in-person early voters who were registered in 2010 but didn't vote that year, fifty percent of these voters were in twelve counties (in order of the largest number of total voters): Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth, Buncombe, Gaston, Durham, Union, Iredell, Pitt, and Catawba counties.

For registered Democrats, half of their 40K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth, Durham, Buncombe, Gaston, Pitt, Union, Wayne, and Orange counties.

For registered Republicans, half of their nearly 18K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Union, Gaston, Iredell, Randolph, Buncombe, Catawba, Forsyth, Cumberland, Davidson and Wayne counties.

For registered unaffiliated voters, half of their 16K votes came from Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Buncombe, Forsyth, Cumberland, Union, Durham, Gaston, Orange and Iredell counties.

For all the NC Counties, here are their numbers of 2014 in-person early voters who were registered in 2010 but did not vote in 2010:


DEM              LIB REP   UNA   TOTAL
MECKLENBURG 5481 15 1558 1952 9006
WAKE     3591 22 1250 1912 6775
GUILFORD 2806 11 910 815 4542
CUMBERLAND 1679 2 434 485 2600
FORSYTH  1551 3 520 496 2570
BUNCOMBE 1109 6 530 704 2349
GASTON   1002 4 690 412 2108
DURHAM   1482 4 161 421 2068
UNION    704 0 702 463 1869
IREDELL  633 0 578 378 1589
PITT     868 1 335 265 1469
CATAWBA  485 3 521 329 1338
WAYNE    691 1 388 184 1264
NEW HANOVER 603 4 293 357 1257
ALAMANCE 608 3 321 244 1176
RANDOLPH 381 2 558 228 1169
ORANGE   643 7 117 384 1151
CRAVEN   562 3 254 218 1037
NASH     517 1 310 173 1001
CABARRUS 452 1 305 226 984
ONSLOW   398 0 326 240 964
ROCKINGHAM 543 0 245 167 955
JOHNSTON 400 3 295 248 946
DAVIDSON 325 1 390 185 901
BURKE    422 1 232 220 875
ROWAN    367 0 301 182 850
CLEVELAND 529 0 165 112 806
HENDERSON 237 2 242 261 742
BRUNSWICK 280 1 197 209 687
ROBESON  506 1 44 79 630
MOORE    262 2 209 145 618
CALDWELL 208 1 277 126 612
RUTHERFORD 301 0 198 103 602
FRANKLIN 362 1 122 114 599
LENOIR   391 1 106 96 594
CARTERET 226 0 203 164 593
SCOTLAND 399 0 64 128 591
LEE      353 0 140 97 590
CHATHAM  301 0 102 179 582
GRANVILL 392 0 78 108 578
HARNETT  336 1 148 91 576
EDGECOMB 485 0 43 41 569
SURRY    242 1 216 98 557
LINCOLN  217 1 196 113 527
WILSON   354 0 114 59 527
BEAUFORT 319 2 110 91 522
HALIFAX  376 1 32 79 488
VANCE    348 1 63 62 474
SAMPSON  283 1 103 67 454
STANLY   189 2 155 106 452
HOKE     292 2 44 79 417
PERSON   242 1 79 91 413
RICHMOND 275 0 62 73 410
PASQUOTANK 212 1 56 79 348
PENDER   175 3 83 81 342
HAYWOOD  182 1 56 85 324
TRANSYLVANIA 129 1 67 102 299
WILKES   88 0 144 65 297
COLUMBUS 214 0 36 42 292
ALEXANDER 112 1 114 64 291
DARE     117 1 71 80 269
STOKES   114 1 88 51 254
WATAUGA  90 3 49 97 239
MCDOWELL 77 1 93 60 231
DAVIE    66 0 97 60 223
WARREN   185 0 12 21 218
MACON    71 0 59 68 198
BLADEN   129 0 25 36 190
JACKSON  102 0 39 44 185
BERTIE   146 0 12 23 181
PAMLICO  106 0 37 36 179
ANSON    151 0 10 14 175
DUPLIN   118 0 36 18 172
MARTIN   119 0 21 27 167
MADISON  85 1 36 40 162
CASWELL  118 1 18 23 160
ASHE     47 0 52 41 140
POLK     37 0 44 58 139
SWAIN    72 1 30 34 137
GREENE   85 0 14 32 131
YANCEY   55 1 42 30 128
CHEROKEE 34 0 56 30 120
ALLEGHANY 63 1 29 25 118
MITCHELL 19 0 64 34 117
MONTGOMERY 68 0 19 25 112
WASHINGTON 92 0 9 11 112
CHOWAN   65 0 26 16 107
NORTHAMPTON 89 0 6 8 103
YADKIN   27 0 54 19 100
HERTFORD 64 0 7 18 89
PERQUIMAS 49 0 15 14 78
CAMDEN   31 0 20 24 75
CURRITUCK 24 0 19 27 70
CLAY     22 1 14 27 64
GRAHAM   19 0 21 17 57
AVERY    7 1 33 14 55
JONES    27 0 20 8 55
GATES    43 0 2 7 52
TYRRELL  20 0 1 3 24
HYDE     13 1 0 0 14