Friday, October 31, 2014

NC Nears The End of 2014's In-Person Early Voting

With today's and Saturday's early voting, North Carolina will finish up the process leading into next Tuesday's election. And with the numbers we are seeing in accepted early ballots, we may be seeing a different kind of electorate than what we saw in the last mid-term election.

As of Thursday, a total of 926,451 early ballots were submitted, either by in-person (90 percent) or via mail (10 percent).  This represents nearly a third of the almost 2.7 million ballots that were cast in the state's 2010 mid-term election.

Of the 831,665 accepted in-person early ballots submitted across the state so far:



  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Democrats are 48.7 percent
  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Republicans are 31 percent
  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Unaffiliated and Libertarian voters are 20.1 percent
  • women are 54 percent
  • white voters are 72 percent
  • black voters are 25 percent

If we compare the same-day total to 2010's same-day total, this year's numbers are 119 percent from where they were four years ago.  Registered Republicans have finally caught up to their 2010 numbers, with two days to go in early ballots; however, ballots from unaffiliated voters are 140 percent of where they were four years ago, and Democratic ballots are 125 percent of where they were in 2010.

For yesterday's daily totals of accepted in-person early ballots:



  • Ballots from registered Democratic voters was 47 percent
  • Ballots from registered Republicans was 32 percent
  • Ballots from registered unaffiliated voters was 20 percent
  • Women cast 56 percent of the ballots yesterday
  • Whites cast 72 percent of the ballots
  • Blacks cast 25 percent of the ballots
The trend line comparison shows the increase of both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters having surpassed the same-day totals from four years ago, with the GOP finally catching up to their numbers:



Of the voters who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far and how they participated in the 2010 mid-term election:


Finally, I looked at the racial composition of the voters who have submitted in-person early ballots and how they voted in 2010's mid-term election:


What is striking is the increase in both white unaffiliated/Libertarians and black Democrats who did not vote in 2010 but have cast in-person early ballots this year. This will be important to see how this mix of non-2010 voters may have some impact on this year's electorate and ultimate voting.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

NC's In-Person Early Voting Continues to March Ahead of 2010's Numbers

North Carolina's early voting continues its march ahead of where the state was four years in the last mid-term election; among all early voting methods (in-person and mail-in balloting), 731,251 ballots have been accepted for November 4th's election.

Among those accepted in-person early ballots, 689,682 votes have cast, equal to 115 percent of the same day total in 2010.  Among these cumulative accepted in-person ballots cast:



  • registered Democrats are 49 percent
  • registered Republicans are 30.8 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated voters are 20 percent
  • Women are 54 percent
  • White voters are 72 percent
  • Black voters are 25 percent
Among the 129,842 ballots that were cast in-person on Wednesday, October 29:


  • registered Democrats were 48 percent
  • registered Republicans were 32 percent
  • registered Unaffiliated voters were 20 percent
  • Women were 55 percent
  • White voters were 72 percent
  • Black voters were 25 percent
In comparing the trend lines of this year's accepted in-person early ballots against the same day totals in 2010:


  • Registered Democrats are 122 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers
  • Registered Unaffiliated voters are 135 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers
  • Registered Republicans are 95 percent of the same day total from their 2010 numbers
Of the voters who have cast in-person early ballots so far, a slim plurality among party voters used the same voting method four years ago:
 

What again is notable is that 30 percent of registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters (Libertarians being a very small percentage of that number) did not participate in the 2010 election, due to not voting, or not being registered, or not living in the state. 

With three more days of in-person early voting left in North Carolina, the shortened time period for early voting seems not to have caused an issue, with Democrats and, surprisingly, unaffiliated voters taking advantage of this period before Election Day.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Over Half-A-Million Accepted In-Person Early Ballots in NC's 2014 General Election

SECOND UPDATE (2:44 PM): The State Board of Elections is aware of the issue and is working to resolve the discrepancies between what Mecklenburg County's Board of Elections website is showing for total votes on Tuesday and what the state's data file has, per the Public Information Officer for the NCSBE Josh Lawson. The NCSBE is hopeful to have the corrected numbers included in tomorrow's data file.  

UPDATE: It was discovered that there may be an incorrect data load from Mecklenburg County, home to Charlotte and one of the largest counties in the state. Only 500 in-person accepted early votes were recorded in the state datafile this morning for Wednesday's early voting; on the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections website, 10,624 ballots were cast. Previously, on Tuesday, over 10,000 ballots were cast. Will update this blog entry once those numbers are corrected from either the state or county. --MB

Tuesday's voting brought in nearly 118,000 in-person accepted early ballots to push the total early in-person accepted votes to nearly 550,000 so far (546,995 to be exact).  Of all early ballots submitted, and that includes both in-person and mail-in, 583,864 have been accepted as votes, with ballots from registered Democrats at 281,313, registered Republicans at 184,161, registered Unaffiliated voters at 117,510, and registered Libertarians at 880.

Among the accepted in-person early ballots, yesterday's daily totals were:




  • from registered Democrats: 48 percent
  • from registered Republicans: 32 percent
  • from registered unaffiliated: 20 percent
  • from women: 55 percent
  • from white voters: 73 percent
  • from black voters: 24 percent
Of the cumulative accepted in-person early ballots, the totals so far are:



  • from registered Democrats: 49 percent
  • from registered Republicans: 31 percent
  • from registered unaffiliated: 20 percent
  • from women: 53 percent
  • from white voters: 72 percent
  • from black voters: 25 percent
The trends comparing this year's accepted in-person early ballots to the last mid-term election in 2010 shows Democrats and unaffiliated voters are still overperforming their numbers from four years ago:


  • overall in-person early ballots accepted are 106 percent of the same day total in 2010
  • overall in-person early ballots accepted from registered Democratic voters are 116 percent of the same day total in 2010
  • overall in-person early ballots accepted from registered unaffiliated voters are 125 percent of the same day total in 2010
  • overall in-person early ballots accepted from registered Republican voters are 87 percent of the same day total in 2010
Of the North Carolina voters who have cast in-person early ballots, their voting methods continue to show a sizable segment of Democrats and unaffiliated voters who did not vote in 2010:


Based on the 21 percent of registered Democrats and the 28 percent of registered unaffiliated voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2010 (whether because they were not registered, not living in the state, or simply did not vote), there is still a sense of an active ground game operation that is bringing in voters into this year's election. If this pattern holds throughout the remainder of the early voting period, it may indicate a slightly higher turnout rate than what we have traditionally seen in North Carolina voter turnout in mid-term elections (in 2006, it was 37 percent and in 2010, it was 44 percent). 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

NC 2014 In-Person Early Votes Catches 2010's Numbers

It appears that even with the reduction in days of early voting to 10 days this year as compared to 2010's 17 days, North Carolina voters are still utilizing in-person early voting; it has only taken 5 days to reach the same number of early votes as were cast in the first twelve days in 2010.

As of Monday, October 27, 460,880 total accepted early ballots have been received (this includes accepted mail-in and in-person early ballots), with 428,383 submitted by in-person early voting and accepted.  In 2010 on the same day prior to election day, 426,305 in-person early votes had been submitted.


On Monday, Oct. 27, the following in-person ballots were submitted:


In comparing the trend lines against the performance in 2010:


Registered Democratic voters have submitted 50 percent of the total in-person early votes, and are 110 percent of where they were four years ago.  Registered unaffiliated voters are 20 percent of the total in-person early votes, and are 116 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day. Registered Republicans are 30 percent of the total in-person early votes, and are 81 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day.

Finally, the vast majority of this year's in-person early voters used the same voting method in 2010, but there are a sizable plurality of voters this year who (either because they did not vote or did not register or did not live in the state) did not cast ballots in 2010, especially among registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters.


Sunday, October 26, 2014

Third Day of NC In-Person Early Voting Nets Nearly 50K Ballots

North Carolina's third day of early, in-person voting netted nearly 50,000 ballots, making a total of 283,758 in-person early votes cast and accepted (reminder: these are accepted votes, and excludes the spoiled ballots that may not have correct information when submitted).




Of the 49,217 ballots cast in-person on Saturday, 49 percent came from registered Democratic voters, 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 21 percent from registered unaffiliated/Libertarian voters. Women voters are 53 percent, white voters are 72 percent, and black voters are 24 percent.

Among the cumulative three-day total of 283,758 ballots accepted as in-person early votes:



  • registered Democrats are 49 percent
  • registered Republicans are 30 percent
  • registered unaffiliated & Libertarians are 20 percent
  • women are 52 percent
  • white voters are 72 percent
  • black voters are 25 percent
In comparing this year's cumulative daily in-person early vote trend against the last mid-term election year of 2010:


As of this same day prior to election day, 2014's in-person early vote total is 82 percent of where 2010 was on the same day--but a reminder, there were 7 extra days of in-person early voting in 2010.  Both Democrats and unaffiliated voters are 91 and 90 percent (respectively) of their 2010 daily cumulative total at this point, while Republicans are 67 percent of their 2010 daily cumulative total as of this same date.

Of these voters who have cast ballots via in-person early voting as of 10-25-14 and how they voted (if they did) in 2010's mid-term election:


Saturday, October 25, 2014

2nd Day of 2014 NC In-Person Early Voting Catches Up to 2010 Numbers

In the push of early voting by the campaigns, the reduction of the number of days (but not the number of hours) from 2010 to this year seems to be mitigated by the mobilization and energy of North Carolina voters.

Among those who cast ballots in the first two days of 2014's N.C. in-person early voting, a total of 234,032 ballots have been submitted, which equates to 74 percent of the total on this date received in 2010 (reminder: 2010 was already on the 8th day of voting at this point and had 314,581 in-person early votes cast).

Total accepted ballots cast via early methods (and this includes mail-in absentee and in-person voting) is 261,636, with 48 percent coming from registered Democrats, 32 percent from registered Republicans, and 20 percent from registered unaffiliated and Libertarian voters.

Among the 234K in-person early votes cast so far:


  • 50 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far are from registered Democrats
  • 30 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far are from registered Republicans
  • 20 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far are from registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters
  • 51 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far are from women
  • white voters make up 71 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far
  • black voters are 25 percent of the in-person ballots cast so far

Among the ballots only cast on the second day of early voting (Friday, October 24):


  • 48 percent of the in-person ballots cast were from registered Democrats
  • 31 percent of the in-person ballots cast were from registered Republicans
  • 21 percent of the in-person ballots cast were from registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters
  • 52 percent of the in-person ballots cast were from women
  • white voters made up 73 percent of the in-person ballots cast
  • black voters made up 24 percent of the in-person ballots cast

In comparing this year's in-person early votes cast against the numbers in 2010:


Among party registration:
  • registered Democrats are 81 percent of their total same-day ballot numbers from 2010
  • registered Republicans are 60 percent of their total same-day ballot numbers from 2010
  • registered unaffiliated and Libertarian voters are 79 percent of their total same-day ballot numbers from 2010
In two days of in-person early voting in 2014, North Carolinians have cast an almost equivalent number of ballots as the first seven days in 2010.

If we take the assumption that casting in-person early ballots is a reflection of the energy and mobilization effort by the campaigns for their ground game operations, then the Democratic ground game seems to be mobilizing and energizing their voters to participate, even though the number of early voting days was reduced. It most likely is due to the mentality by Democrats of "Republicans can't reduce our impact by reducing the number of days, we'll show them." Conversely, we'll probably start to hear from Republicans that "see, Democrats still show up even though we reduced the number of days, but not hours, of early voting."

Finally, in comparing how this year's in-person early voters so far cast their ballots in 2010:


What is interesting is that both registered Unaffiliated and Democrats are getting a greater percentage of their registered voters out who didn't vote in 2010. This will be an interesting number to watch over the remainder of 2014's in-person early voting period. 

Friday, October 24, 2014

First Day of NC In-Person Early Voting Nets 118K

North Carolina's start to in-person early voting witnessed 118,063 voters come out to cast their ballots.  In comparison to this point in 2010, with seven extra days for voters to have cast ballots and with 252,000 votes cast then, we're at 47 percent of where we were at this point in the last mid-term election.

The break-downs of early voters so far shows Democrats at their traditional numbers:


In-Person early votes cast by registered Democrats were 51 percent, registered Republicans were 29 percent, and registered unaffiliated & Libertarian voters were 20 percent.

In comparing the trend line against the 2010 in-person early voting:


As we will probably see the numbers slightly adjust over the next few days, the early indications are that registered Democrats are performing at their traditional percentage levels for in-person early voting.  In just one day of in-person early voting, registered Democrats have doubled their mail-in returned and accepted ballots.

In terms of mail-in ballots, the following graphs show the trends that have been posted at this blog: