Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-17-14

The latest information on mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election in North Carolina shows over 10,000 ballots have been requested, with 793 (7%) of those returned and accepted as votes.

Ballot requests from registered Democrats continue to be the plurality, with 41%, while registered Republican ballot requests are at 36% and unaffiliated at 22%.





Among female voters (who are 55% of the requested ballots so far), 45% are registered Democrats, 35% registered Republican, and 19% are registered unaffiliated.  Among male voters, 38% are registered Republican, 36% registered Democrat, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

White voters are 82% of the requested ballots, with black voters at 12%. The average age for all requested ballots is 63 years old.

Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 45%, registered Republicans are 35%, and registered unaffiliated voters are 19%.


Female voters are 51% of the return and accepted ballots to 48% for men; whites are 80% to 15% for black voters.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Via WFAE's The Party Line blog: Gender Politics in NC's Senate Race

I have a new post up at WFAE's The Party Line blog on gender politics playing out in the Hagan-Tillis Senate match-up.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-13-14

So far, nearly 10,000 North Carolinians have received their mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 general election, and we have 4% of those ballots (379) returned.

As to the requested ballots: it appears that Democrats are still requesting the highest percentage of ballots, reversing the traditional dominance of Republicans in mail-in absentee ballots.

Mail-In Absentee Ballots Sent Out as of 9-13-14 in 2014 North Carolina General Election by Party Registration, Gender, and Race
Among party registration, Democrats continue to lead in requested mail-in ballots, with 41% to Republicans at 37% and unaffiliated voters at 21%.  The gender gap is pretty significant, with women requesting 56% of the ballots to 43% for men.  Among female voters, registered Democrats are 45% to 36% Republican and 19% unaffiliated; among male voters, Republicans are 39%, Democrats are 36%, and unaffiliated are 24%.  It appears, from at least these early numbers, that female Democrats are energized for this election, which could be a good early indicator for the Hagan campaign in the U.S. Senate contest.

White voters are 82% of the ballots requested, while black voters are 12.5% and all other races are 6%.

Among the returned mail-in ballots, the numbers are slightly different at this early stage:

Returned Ballots in 2014 North Carolina General Election as of 9-13-14

The gender split is pretty much gone, with women and men returning their ballots in nearly equal numbers.  Granted, only 4% of the requested ballots so far have been returned.

In terms of party registration of the returned ballots, 46% have come from Democrats, 36% from Republicans, and 18% from unaffiliated voters.  White voters are 81% of the returned ballots, while black voters are slightly outperforming their requested ballot performance with 15% of the returned ballots.



Thursday, September 11, 2014

Update to NC's mail-in absentee ballots

We have a new set of data collected by the North Carolina State Board of Elections on requests for mail-in absentee ballots.  This is a second in a series of looking at some of the demographic data from these requests, and ultimately the returned ballots, in looking forward to November's general election.

In the first analysis, we saw a little over 7,500 ballots requested and sent out; this batch gives us 8,899 requests sent out.  Within these ballot requests:

Requests Sent Out for Mail-In Absentee Ballots for 2014 North Carolina General Election as of 9-11-14


In looking at a few key things:


  • Registered Democrats are 41% of the requests, with registered Republicans at 37% and registered unaffiliated voters at 21%. 
  • Ballots going to white voters are 81% of the requests, with black voters at 13%.
  • Women are 56% of the requests, with men just 43%. Within female voters, 45% are registered Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 19% unaffiliated. Within male voters, 37% are registered Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 24% unaffiliated.
  • Average age for requested ballots so far: 64 years old.
  • Congressional District 9 (Republican Incumbent Robert Pittenger running unopposed) has 12% of the requested ballots, while District 6 (Republican Mark Walker vs. Democrat Laura Fjeld) has 11%.



Sunday, September 7, 2014

Voting has begun in North Carolina!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen of the Old North State: voting is underway in our general election. And yes, it's only 2 months before the General Election Day, the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

And by voting, I mean that people are requesting ballots by mail to submit their votes: 7,516 voters to be exact on the first day that mail-in ballots could be sent out.

And while none have been returned as yet, some early indications could be seen in some of the key numbers:

Requests for Mail-In Ballots in 2014 North Carolina General Election as of September 5, 2014

In looking at a few key things:


  • Registered Democrats are 42% of the requests, with registered Republicans at 38% and registered unaffiliated voters at 20%. 
  • Ballots going to white voters are 81% of the requests, with black voters at 14%.
  • Women are 57% of the requests, with men just 42%. Within female voters, 46% are registered Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 18% unaffiliated. Within male voters, 37% are registered Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 23% unaffiliated.
  • Average age for requested ballots so far: 65 years old
  • Pretty evenly divided across congressional districts, though both Congressional District 5 (Republican Rep. Foxx vs. Democrat Josh Brannon) and Congressional District 6 (Republican Mark Walker vs. Democrat Laura Fjeld) have 10% each of the requested ballot totals. 

Historically, ballots coming from registered Republicans have been the plurality of requests.  These early numbers, however, may give us a sense of the crucial "enthusiasm" levels of partisans and non-partisans (although my guess is that both registered Democrats and Republicans will far outweigh their non-partisan unaffiliated (independent) voters).  

Over the next couple of weeks, I'll keep up with the mail-in ballot requests and the (more important) returned status ("accepted") in this area of voting.  

Just as a reminder: traditionally, mail-in absentee ballots are usually 1-2% of the overall total of ballots cast.  However, if the U.S. Senate race between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis remains at a dead-even tie, then these potential 55-60,000 votes could be crucial.